Challenges for macroeconomic modelling by W Driehuis;M M G Fase;H den Hartog;Universiteit van

By W Driehuis;M M G Fase;H den Hartog;Universiteit van Amsterdam.;Nederlandsche Bank.;All authors

This ebook collects the revised and edited court cases of the convention held in honour of the fiftieth anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic coverage version. Written through specialists either within the box of version construction and coverage research, the contributions supply a useful evaluate of the state-of-the-art and using macroeconomic types in our time

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The international environment. The time trend is, of course, also an exogenous variable. Note that exports of goods and their prices are endogenous in the 1936 Tinbergen model. 2. Data The observations on the variables are taken from various sources. The paper gives the annual values for 1923 through 1933 for all variables. For 1934 most values are given, for 1935 the information is less complete. All but one equations are estimated for an eleven year sampling period 19231933. In the case of equations with lagged variables the relevant 1921 and 1922 values are absent but they can be reconstructed from the graphs of the equations.

I am not merely asking for the statisticians to do a better job. It seems to me that modellers and forecasters if theyhad any confidence in their models, could actually try to use their models to bridge some of these gaps. There are of course dangers in estimating a model on data which has been generated by the model. But I think it would be possible to control that if these two roles were done by the same people, who knew what was in their left hands and what was in their right hands. The data discrepances that I have mentioned, compound quite literally when attempts are made to construct stockdata consistent with the flowdata.

The models would be of assistence in that process in a way suggested in his opening remarks by Tinbergen. I think rather more sceptical than Barro about the real business cycle models since they show a great ingenuity and make use of calibration techniques. But, while they congenerate time series that look like a particularly historical episode, they have other implications which seem to me to be very implausible in many cases. Jacques Drèze mentioned that there was danger of a modeller falling in love with his model.

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